If you read the Wall Street Journal, its the end of the photovoltaic era and the PV industry seems to be shaking in its boots. You can be sure that if Solar World does not get subsidized by the Taxpayers and does not get the Department of Commerce to to effectively stop all Chinese imports they will vanish in a puff of smoke. Photovoltaic incentives are practically gone worldwide. The industry is awash in panels and laminates. But hasn’t the writing been on the wall for a long time?
Last week the Journal said natural gas utility plants now make PV economics unaffordable for the next 25 years. The oil and gas industry is having an orgy celebrating it in ads across America. Regular gas is at $4.35/gal. and its like nobody notices, what the hell is going on! Grid connected PV applications have exposed solar companies for what they are and the shit finally hit the fan. Well actually that does not surprise me, but should we just scrap PV completely?
The good news is that without government interference PV has a chance to find its own way again to show how it can support itself. Frankly, I have always thought Sun Electronics had the right idea. We’ve always focused on off grid PV applications where there are no power lines and the competition is diesel and gas generators, sure that’s not going to save the world but neither are grid connected PV applications going to save the world.
After everything that we seen in the last 20 years grid connected PV installations have contributed what, a small fraction of 1% of our energy use? They have also contributed to the spending of billions and then left behind bankrupted factories we also had to pay for. You’d think we liked throwing money away. I’ve been in this business 25 years and there has never been a profitable PV factory.
Now we are watching the U.S. Department of Commerce preparing to consider 100% to 250% dumping fines against the Chinese who were the first and most successful at bringing us low cost PV modules, they did it not us. The DOC is well known for its uselessness and government waste. It’s they who should be penalized and maybe even put out of business, it wouldn’t be the first time it was attempted.Why are they fighting so hard to keep these unprofitable PV factories we have in business? It will cause the doubling or tripling of the price of PV in the U.S. If they get their way they will make all American PV installers, dealers, and distributors unable to compete against Chinese PV companies in all of Latin America, the Caribbean and the for that matter, the rest of the world. No one will be able to afford U.S. made solar panels.
Everyone has a different point of view and we can learn from those other points of view. We may be totally unaware of them so its good to hear criticism. I’m all ears. This is just what I’m thinking tonight, I tend to change opinions quickly with a logical argument..
The big question I have is what will happen if the Anti-PV guys (basically Republicans) get in the White House and the Legislature and end all PV support in the U.S. After all I’ll take anybody’s money if it will help me and Sun Electronics do what we do best, we make PV affordable on its own two feet! I don’t want American taxpayer money unless they want to give it and I don’t care if the Chinese want to dump it as long as it makes it cost effective like off-grid PV. Does that make sense. Let the rest of the world lose as much money as they want, is that our business.
My company has a solid back up plan for keeping the cost of PV down and if free money falls away we can still be cost effective. How do you think we did business in Miami these last 21 years? Florida and all our neighbors to the south never had incentives. At Photowatt, Photocomm and Kyocera for the first 10 years of my career selling PV there were basically no tax incentives. The one true and honest market for PV has always been OFF THE GRID. Talk about Green, these people are living in the green, growing the green and eating the green (oh yeah and sometimes smoking the Green) on their own land.
People say the U.S. is the only major PV market left struggling as it is, except for Japan which just had the crap scared out of it. And, now in the U.S. paranoid me actually thinks there is a campaign to totally wipe out solar and wind power forever. Look at the ads: DRILL< DRILLL< DRILL< BURN< BURN< DRILL< FRACK <BURN<FRACK ITS GOOD FOR US! blarring away everywhere at us even I’m almost convinced. Am I the only one noticing it? I actually think they might get a negative reaction at some point from the general public. However, if Obama, the Pro-PV guy wins, then we’ll have government wasting billions again choosing technology, projects and factory winners and losers. He’s so much as said it in his latest speeches, OBAMA THINKS HUGE SOLAR FARMS IN THE MIDDLE OF NOWHERE ARE WHERE IT’S AT. We, the taxpayers, should all start right here on our own homes, not in the middle of nowhere, if they want to fund grid connected systems
So here’s the solution in a nutshell, in the rough, I think:
Give a 40% rebate to the same people who are paying for the rebates, by making it for residential power systems only. Get rid of all the carpet bagging creeps who have crashed the solar business with their stupid wasteful solar farms designed by lawyers and accountants to make a quick buck and get out. If the system is installed by the home owner, increase it to 50%.
Very few rich people will do it because because they don’t need it. They also have nice fancy roof tops and they won’t want to spoil the looks of their large architecturally awesome homes. They should also limit the size to 5KW, way to small for the homes of the wealthy. Finally, require all participants to purchase $4,000 of Energy Star appliances and or/gas appliances. We are trying to get people to save energy right? Oh yeah and no permitting of any kind will be allowed on homeowner installed systems. since few inspectors know what their doing anyway. They could cut the budget for solar, reduce government interference, make solar much more cost effective, create more jobs than on solar farm projects and save more energy, oh yeah and educate the homeowners, all their family and all the neighborhood to boot. Anyway, something like that or just limit all solar PV incentives to off the grid applications where it makes sense.
Without incentives the industry will totally collapse for grid connected systems (95+% of the market today). Of course this has been happening since last year, especially happening because they took away the rebate in the U.S. Jan. 1st. Germany and Italy, the No. 1 and 2 largest markets recently lost most of their incentives to make PV worthwhile there. In addition much of the excess world inventory is expected to be cleared out according the Journal by the end of the second quarter. In our most recent bulk purchase we presold at the right time and at the right price, the magic number 78 of 78¢/W for A Grade and B Grade Modules and is still a great price to this day. To do this deal we had to raise $4MM in approx. 5 days to buy the 36,000 Evergreen modules. That was last Oct. Since we finished that project we have been focusing again on auctions, close outs, off spec sales with UL and without, B Grade and even C Grade modules and laminates. More are now available at the world’s lowest prices ever, around 100,000 to 200,000 we have found just in the last 3 months.
It’s now raining cheap PV energy. After this there will be another cycle of renewed growth of solar PV. God forbid a Houston refinery gets hit by a hurricane or an earthquake hits a California Nuclear Plant, a war with Iran, then the political winds for PV will shift again. Who knows what will happen in the future, solar interest in PV will peak again.
So you bend with the wind, right? Sellers and buyers waiting for the changes and the time to place their bets on the Sun and all Renewables to make moeny, protect the environment or whatever your reason. It will always rise again, up and down, round and round we go through space and time, living. Focus on life don’t get too crazy. If your interested, affordable independent PV living is available to you now. Someday we might even get a breakthrough in technology. These have always been the goals of Sun Electronics since I started in the solar business some 39 years ago.
Recently I have been spending a lot of my time with my son John age 7. I feel like a Jewish mother. We go to art galleries, bowling, ice cream, lunch (sometimes in that order) of course the toy stores (Toys R Us is solid plastic – yuck – cheap Chinese crap!), banks, missed our appointment at the police station, donut factory, tropical gardens, lizard hunting, digging holes, hide and go seek in the darkened old office-very scary, blowing off skyrockets-just a couple, swinging on the water skiing rope way the hell up in the tree, in other words living every day as if it’s the last day of my life. You never know, it might be. So for those of us who care more about life than money, our kids are good at teaching us what we forgot, don’t worry about the solar market too much, its going to be with us for billions of years. But, don’t forget about your kids because they are everything, at least if you ask me.
In a blog awhile ago I got really upset about all the animals that we all know are dying around the globe. I made some crazy statement it wasn’t going to happen on my watch. I sure hope things will get better though, somehow. It’s weird the way we worry about the trees and the animals and we forget about all the people that just get all messed up. I guess its just easier. Anyway John’s homework tonight was to learn about natural habitat in Massachusetts. Shrews and Blue Whales are endangered in Massachusetts, endangered, what’s endangered in your state or country? We need to remember People, Animals and Plants. Or should we just blow them all off like were doing to solar electric power right now and fucking drill and frack and burn. They’re like Orks and Goblins in the Lord of the Rings. This whole advertising blitz by the Oil and Gas Industry is getting on my nerves. I have nothing against natural gas but fracking sounds weird, like pink slime, coal affects the air regardless and that affects people and the view. Nuclear can be summed up in a couple of words Meltdown and 200,000 years of storage. Getting started on cost effective solar just seems good all the way around for everyone.
Where was I? Oh yeah, so once again, we are lining up the best offers we can get from every manufacturer in the world, I know you may have seen this sort of thing before from others but maybe you heard about us or the Evergreen Auction. It was amazing but we said we were going to come back and do the same thing with 100,000 modules and we are just getting started so please tell people about what we are trying to do. We need your word of mouth advertising more than anything and God knows you all like to talk about solar. So keep the faith brothers and sisters and lets raise our hearts and heads up to the the Sun God and pray that clean pure solar energy will someday win the day for life on Earth. (I’m thinking about starting a new faith based on the old religions who worshiped the SUN. I actually have a nice new empty building already for it so get your donations ready remember 10% is standard. To belong all you have to do is respect the Sun, a little Sun block is OK.
We learned allot from that Evergreen experience, but I think its the safest thing to do right now, pre-selling that is. Once we have enough orders for a container Louis or Adam will fly to the location and inspect it. They know what they are doing. Then we will ask for the wire transfers. That’s the idea anyway so far. We already sold 33,000 modules this way. We have to have prices that will blow people’s minds, we know that, and now we know we also have to know how to get it all shipped faster, we learned that. By the way we never have gotten that $1.5MM from the credit card company, they just kept it, its been 6 months now. We will be OK no matter what the world throws at us. Newsflash Arizona may loose grid-connected PV incentives, one of the best in the U.S. and First Solar must have been out of their mind when they started fighting with UL and UL found millions of solar modules installed with no UL, seriously.
We think once the world’s excess inventory is used up, which the WSJ said last week is happening now, the price will rise. If Obama keeps giving speeches about renewable energy policy, they will go up. If he wins, prices will shoot up. If the Department of Commerce shuts the door on the Chinese next month with the 100% to 250% dumping penalty tariff or whatever it is, then the prices will explode since all the panels will come from the U.S, Europe, Japan, and some other areas in Asia , I think.
Please spread the information on our web site home page for all the great deals. Frankly I would go for the laminates. Just call anyone of our people if your interested in the list of available modules on the home page www.sunelec.com for as little as 78¢/watt or the much cheaper laminates only and you can buy as little as a pallet – both negotiable- but you have to wait till we fill a container or be flexible to switch so we can consolidate to all the same type to fill containers. For details always call Louis, Adam, Pierre, Shelley, Claudia, Tony, Roberto, Charlie, Vanessa, or Lek in Phoenix (he’s getting married this week) @sunelec.com 305-536-9917 Please don’t call me, I’m on special assignment.
Anyway at this point you can surf in either direction, just be ready when the backwash runs out and you have to get bullish again, at least if your in my position, a buyer, I’m sure there will be another world shortage of solar panels again someday like we had in 2005 to 2007.
I could say a lot more but I’d just have more to regret latter. See, my spelling is horrible nowadays, even with spell check.
Best regards,
John
“Think of what you have instead of what you want.”
To all my family: Graciela, Johnny, Rosa, Christy, Theresa, Betty, Bobby, Richard, Adelaide, Billy, Ann Eve, Mary Lynne, Susan, Everyone in Mexico (I’m related to half of them I think)…
To all my friends who I really love to work with and to have known in my life, at work: Shelley, Rosa, Claudia, Vanessa, Guadalupe, Lek, Louis, Adam, Pierre, Alain, Tom, Jorge, Juan, Manny, Cosett, Gaby, Jerry, Charlie, Roberto, hmmm I know I forgot someone oh yeah Danny and all my other friends, Josh, Jade, Jack, Rusty, Kelly, Zachary, Sasha, Anika, Adam, Chris, Ms. Monem, Arian, Joseph, Scott, Esther, Max, Ms. Delaglio, Adam, David, Erin, John, Bruce, Carlos, Vanessa, and so many others.
To my family and old friends in Tucson and all around me: Tab, Tom, Ron, Bruce, Sandra, The Peterson’s especially Poncho, Concha and Quinta, David, Van, Patrick, John, John, Ford, Andy, Jom, Lisa, Amy, Nancy, Manie, Cele, Mumsie, Thelma, David, Dr. and Mrs. Kurtin, Kevin, Mrs. Garrigan, Mrs. Meyerson, Coach Lutz, the Pallets, the Bogards, the Burrs, and Mom, Dad. Mrs. Crane, George Brown, Skip, Mary, Sandy, Suzie, Ana Mary, Cathy, Dan, and hundreds more.
God Bless All Of You.
God forgive us our sins as we forgive those who have trespassed against us.